VA-BLED
A clinical risk score for estimating 1-year esophageal variceal bleeding risk.
VA-BLED is being developed as a web-based clinical risk stratification tool. The calculator will be made available after finalization of the model equations, risk thresholds, and manuscript-linked documentation.
This website is intended for clinical risk stratification and research use. It does not replace clinical judgment, guideline-based care, or individualized patient management.
Calculator
The VA-BLED calculator is currently under development.
The interactive version will be released after the final model coefficients, intercepts, risk thresholds, and prevalence-adjustment logic have been locked.
Planned model outputs
- VA-BLED risk score
- Risk category: low, intermediate, or high
- Scenario-based 1-year risk estimates
Planned input domains
- Clinical history
- Alcohol use status
- Endoscopic risk markers
- Routine laboratory variables
Methods
This section will describe the derivation of VA-BLED, including candidate predictors, model specification, internal validation, out-of-fold prediction, calibration assessment, and comparison with existing clinical frameworks.
Final equations will be provided transparently after manuscript finalization. This will include the model intercepts, regression coefficients, and the exact transformation used for scenario-based risk estimates.
Interpretation
The final website will provide guidance for interpreting VA-BLED output, including low-, intermediate-, and high-risk zones.
Because VA-BLED was developed in a case-enriched retrospective dataset, absolute risk percentages will be presented as scenario-based estimates after prevalence adjustment rather than as prospectively validated real-world risks.
Citation
Citation information will be added after manuscript submission, preprint release, or journal publication.
Placeholder: Denk D. et al. VA-BLED: a clinical score for 1-year esophageal variceal bleeding risk stratification. Manuscript in preparation.
Privacy
The planned calculator will run locally in the browser. Entered values will not be stored, transmitted, or linked to patient identity.
No patient-level data should be entered into this website beyond the variables required for risk-score calculation.
Version history
Version history will be documented here after the calculator is released.
v0.1— Placeholder website deployed.
Contact
Contact information will be added after manuscript finalization.
For now, this page serves as a development placeholder for the VA-BLED score website.